Prognosticator of Prognosticators


Charles Krauthammer must read Papa-Lu.

Obama should be thinking ahead as well — using ‘08 to cure his problem of inexperience. Run for the Democratic nomination and lose. He only has to do reasonably well in the primaries to become such a compelling national figure as to be invited onto the ticket as vice presidential nominee. If John Edwards, the runner-up in ‘04 did well enough to be made running mate, a moderately successful Obama would be the natural choice for ‘08.

In one of the posts that I linked to here, Daniel Larison says:

There is also the matter of admittedly limited experience; Jon Edwards ran up against this obstacle, and while he managed to make the VP slot he has become the answer to the trivia question, “Who was the losing vice presidential candidate with the least experience in government?” or the answer to the other trivia question, “Which Southern Democrat thought he was the second coming of Bill Clinton?” Obama does not want to become the Jon Edwards of the future, and therefore will not run in two years.

What Larison is forgetting is that Edwards - even more than Obama is all rhetoric and no substance. His senate term was up in 2000 and there was much doubt as to whether Edwards could have held his senate seat had he tried (he was the fourth straight challenger to defeat an incumbent for that seat). In other words, Edwards was quite possibly at his political zenith when he tossed his hat in. Obama, on the other hand, is a rising-star Democrat from a state that's trending more and more leftward. Even if he loses the 2008 primaries and fails to gain the vice-presidential spot on the Dem ticket, he will still be a sitting U.S. Senator who will likely retain his seat in 2010, meaning he well still be a senator in 2012 when McCain is facing re-election or in 2016 when Hillary finishes her 8 years in office.

Obama may then likely perceive that he has nothing to lose and the vice-presidency to gain by running in 2008.

The problem with this analysis is that it presumes that Obama is cynical enough to vie for a spot on the Dem ticket with Hilary Clinton, or that he's dumb enought to run thinking he'll be president. Much as I dislike Obama, he's neither of those things. He's a very sincere man I happen to disagree with on many, many things. I think he's smart enough to know that with such a scanty record, he'll have to run on his ideas, which are either generically meaningless (we need to "come together" and "work for the common good") or are too far in left field.

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This page contains a single entry by Papa-Lu published on October 29, 2006 8:13 AM.

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